对人类的事件，诸如政治、经济、社会、商业进行预测是毫无意义的，更不要说那些发生在75年以后的事，但是明确那些已经发生的、不可改变的因而会对将来一、二十年可能产生影响的重要事件是可能的和富有成效的。也就是说，明确那些已经初现端倪的未来事件，并为之做好准备是完全可能的。 ~gDYb#p
影响未来20年国际商务的主要因素不是经济或者科技，而是人口状况。如果没有战争、瘟疫或者彗星撞击地球，在过去40年里一直警醒我们的人口过剩，将不再是影响世界商务的重要因素，而发达国家，诸如欧洲、北美、日本等国家的人口紧缩将成为影响世界商务的重要因素。 Q:-T' xk@
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There is no point in predicting human affairs, such as those in political, economic, social and commercial fields, let alone those affairs which are to happen in 75 years. However, it is possible and fruitful to make clear the affairs of great consequence which have already taken place and are unchangeable, thus having great effects in the next one or two decades. That is to say, it is fully possible to make clear and prepare for the affairs which are beginning to take shape. 1oQw)X
It is the state of population rather than economy or science and technology that will be the major factor affecting the international trade in the next 20 years. If there aren’t any such calamities as warfare, pestilences or comets running into the Earth, the overpopulation that has been warning us in the last 4 decades will no longer be a major factor affecting the international trade. On the contrary, the reduction of population in such developed districts and countries as Europe, North American and Japan will become the major factor affecting the international trade.
