The Global Financial Crisis Of 2008 Vx;f/CH3!
by Nicholas A. Vardy oil s;*q
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Here we are yet again in the midst of another "global economic crisis." From the hilltops of Davos, Switzerland, Morgan Stanley's permabear Stephen Roach has shouted warnings of potential economic "Armageddon." Superinvestor George Soros designated the current state of the global economy "the worst marketcrisis in 60 years." Bill Clinton labeled it "the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression" —— even as global stocks responded by slumping 7.7% in January —— the worst start to an investing year since Morgan Stanley began publishing data in the 1970s. eG72=l)Mz
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But before you liquidate your financial assets, buy gold bullion, and move to a cave in Montana, you may wish to consider that current predictions of global economic collapse may be simply hyperbole. It has happened before. Clinton's quote above actually refers to the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 —— right before NASDAQ clocked an 88% gain in 1999. Nor does this global crisis stand up to the scrutiny of historic comparison. Remember the S&L crisis in the early '80s? It cost the U.S. economy about 3.5% of GDP —— about 5x the size of subprime write-offs so far. Or how about the dark days of 1981, when the Federal Reserve drove its key interest rate to 19% in an effort to whip inflation? Bill Clinton's "Great Depression of 1998" doesn't even merit mention. %0YwaxXPn7
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Global Financial Crisis: The Current State of Play =SA@3)kHH
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Comparing economic statistics is inevitably a "glass is half empty" versus "glass is half full" kind of game. Both Pollyannas and Cassandras can marshal endless statistics to support their version of events. But since it's the Cassandras' views that are the flavor of the day, let's look at some "glass is half full" statistics on the U.S. economy. 0R\lm<&
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Companies in the U.S. private sector added 130,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate eased to 4.9%. The Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturingactivity rose to 50.7 in January —— back above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion consistent with GDP growth of roughly 2%. Nearly 93% （!） of purchasing managers said that turmoil in financial markets was having no effect on their companies' ability to obtain regular or additional financing. That situation indicates that the turmoil is restricted to Wall Street and subprime households. o/@.*Rj>Bg
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True, that after rip roaring performances in Q2 and Q3, the U.S. economy has stumbled. But a look behind the headline numbers is revealing. Good news came from the consumer sector （spending increased by 2%）, business investment （jumping 7.5%）, and exports （up 3.9%）. It was declines in residential investment （down 23.9%） and in inventory investment that almost wiped out those gains. All of this indicates that the economy stands less at the precipice of the next Great Depression than at a cyclical purging of excesses —— particularly in the housing sector.
