Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. 0z . &
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, 0W@C!mD~
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. ?AR6+`0
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. J?{uG8)
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. }wn GO
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Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows.
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It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. &" =inkh
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. ]C_6I\Z#=W
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. C)`/Q( ^
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds Fik*7!XQ8
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. rkV ZP!7!
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. {oO!v}]
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper f"/NY6
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. Te;`-E L
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. U]_1yX
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. p<
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Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. zg]9~ i8
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— ?(F~
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been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. o|*,<5t
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, WFTTBUoH
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. ?=aQG0
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." M^H357r%
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 5<9}{X+@o
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 a93Aj
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 w}+jfO9
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 [(]uin+9Q
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 !s5 _ JO
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 1_ %3cN.
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 s+,Jw V?b
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 -K PbA`j+
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 r-=#C1eY&
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， pLNv\M+
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 (FP -
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上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 ^k/@y@%
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 XXvM*"3D5
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 7iT#dpF/A
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 EQ\/I(
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如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 rM Un ~
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 Dhv ^}m@
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— 1)w^.8f
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 \\xo OA.
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， Xnpw'<~X
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 XC% u`UG
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 W:' H&`0
