2024全国医学博士英语作文预测：新冠病毒和市场动荡

Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. KtAEM;g  
　　The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, I\1E=6"  
　　vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. e:-pqZT`  
　　For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. .&b^6$dC  
　　But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. AoGpM,W]5  
　　Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. +?6]Vu&|f  
　　It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. aO1.9 !<v  
　　The resilience of such strategies could be tested. RvA "ug.*  
　　A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. a+z >pV|  
　　A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds {nSgiqd"28  
　　and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. ]v:,<=S  
　　The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch.  Hvz;[!  
　　So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper &0T7 Uv-`  
　　has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. k"[AV2UW1  
　　But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. oD2
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　　If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. CaCApL  
　　Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. n>JJ Xw,,  
　　Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— $U ._4  
　　been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. gF9GU5T:  
　　A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, uh9b!8  
　　says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. PQ!'<  
　　"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." ^WWr8-  
　　首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 h;E.y   
　　衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 '$yy  
　　在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 gmTBp}3  
　　例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 ~,F]~|U7l  
　　但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 o\tw)_ >  
　　一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 E}w5.1  
　　至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 e"EGqn&!  
　　这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 (F;*@Z*R  
　　更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 56c3tgVF  
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　　借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， Tl_o+jj  
　　同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 B[&l<*O-y  
　　上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 i%f C`@  
　　到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 !f!YMpN  
　　已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 IO?a.L:6U  
　　根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 Lo[;{A$u  
　　如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 FbdC3G|oA  
　　降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 ?<0'h{zNy  
　　过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— jtpk5 fJB  
　　曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 {9@E[bWp#  
　　法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， zuJ` 704   
　　市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 X2~KNw  
　　“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 w3fD6$  

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