Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. oplA'Jgnv
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, iM/0Yp-v'>
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. *pC -`k
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. F Hcqu_;J
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. p;t!"I:`?
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. QRHm |f9_C
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. IC-xCzR
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. OK J%M]<
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. q
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A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds s]%
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and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. u
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The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. I64:-P[\
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper
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has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. 0S7I sk2W
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. F}.TT =((8
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. % ` [`I>
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. lKwT5ma7
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— bNU^tL3QZ
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. KJC9^BAr
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, ;k%s KVP
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. 'htA! KHF
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." 3M*[a~
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 n4&j<zAV{
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 g):jZU]b
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 iC+H; s5<
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 P1 >X5:
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 y" -{6{3
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 )t ch>.EQ_
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 gj;G :;1m
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 3i}B\
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更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 (3r,PS@Qq@
? FN`kSTm*0!
借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， Y1+lk^
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 2`U&,,-Mf
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 j5GZ;d?
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 /iuNdh
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 E oCw S
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 )II,HT-LY
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 .Awq(
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 *bSG48W("
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— [E7@W[ xr
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 tp2 _OQAQ
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前，
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市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 N<(`+ ?
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 DP]|}8~L
