Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. %anY'GK
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, TFfV?rBI
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. e;|:W A
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. a Uy!(Y
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. ?%|w?Fdx-
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. &oz^dlw
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. Po)!vL"
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. t!=qt *
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. 6`c5\G+
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds _#dBcEH[
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. N$!aP /b
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. Z! /!4(
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So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper Jw 4#u5$$Z
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. ? M/H{
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. Lhts4D/V7
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. PeX^aEc
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. {4 y#+[
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— bQvh
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been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. < dD)>Y.
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, X([8TR
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. qk{+Y
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." 2Y7u M;8
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 *QGyF`Go{
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 *y0=sG1+D
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 ]aMeMhe-
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 *U mWcFoF
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 2. 2G79 U,
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 ,J4rKGG
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 c+:XaDS-
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 fP KF U
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 %B~@wc
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， 6ec#3~ Y]
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 1PUeU+
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 y,xJ5BI$
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 IZs NMY
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 =#>F' A
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 h0aK}` /a
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 0a}a
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 ^1-Vd5g
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— DLH|y%"
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 \(&UDG$
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， j[${h, p?
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 $1uT`>%
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 V0G"Z6
