Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. B)SLG]72f
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, x<(b|2qf
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. eo]#sf@\0
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. %Q|eiXD
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. 3HV%4nZLf
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. <|6%9@
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. "&YY O#YO
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. ]n1dp2aH
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. m 40m<@
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds &M &{yc*%
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. D}mL7d 1
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. =o dkz}bU
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper 2i=H"('G)+
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. m$Y
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But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. T8 J4C=?/
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. C*V d -U
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. * b(wVvz
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— w ; TkkDH
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. j RZ%} KX
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, c- ]fKj7
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. g$37
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"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." {+T/GBF-K=
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。
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衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 iDb ;_?
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 xh9q g0d
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 qk{'!Ii
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 mB 55PYA
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 nS.G~c|
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 Z| 6{T
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 !XE aF]8
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 ?bX
? A *]$v
借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， x1[?5n6
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 ROAI9sW0
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 rzLd" `
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 HMQI&Lh=U
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 4jwu'7 Q
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 y;`eDS'0.N
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 RVM&4#E
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 >.%4~\U
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— ^$?qT60%d|
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 mV\$q@sII
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， c. K = (y*
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 o#
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“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 hl/itSl$
