Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself. U9ZuD40\
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, T|8:_4/l
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. X p] jF^5
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios.
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But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. m/Erw"Z
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. jST4O"DjM
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. &|j0GP&
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. U
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A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. RC}m]!Uz
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds ,PmUl=
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. %3O))Ug5
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. x3g4 r_
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper DF_wMv:>^
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. pHuR_U5*?
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. LPBa !fq
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. 7O'.KoMw
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. JO*/UC>"
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— JO`r)_
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. ;W+8X-B
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, % YK xdp
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. #bBh. ^
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." }NoP(&ebz*
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 e@qH!.g)
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 ]
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在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 WPkKb F
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 /q+;!EM
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 J,:&U
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一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 ^ZO! (
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 SOq:!Qt
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 |4g0@}nr+W
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 HO['o{>BL
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， k 'PvTWR
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 =$Mf:F@
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 C6[W/,eS
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 | bz%S B
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 uZtN,Un
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 ^e_LnJ+
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 w^ut,`yW R
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 sa4w.9O1GS
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— S@qR~_>a
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 '"fJA/O
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， <M@-|K"Eb
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 a3<:F2=~\
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 <kdlXS>J.
