Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself.
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The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, wLC!vX.S
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. C bm
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. Ou </{l
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But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. *vv <@+ gA
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. } [}u5T`w>
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. 2K<rK(
The resilience of such strategies could be tested.
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A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. *@ o@>
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds I Gv_s+O-*
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. \kcJF'JFA0
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. JL $6Fw;
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper o zH7c_ <
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. $V-]DD%Y
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. /Y5I0Ko Uw
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. H
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Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. kf\n
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— +Q_(wR"FS
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. 44FK%TmtF
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, ( 1H_ V(
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. 6}
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"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." 2Fi>nJ
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 *I%r
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 11}sRu/
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 K:yS24\ %
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 Hb 'fEo r
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 Gp9 >R~$
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。
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至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 l|O^yNS
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 %(;jx
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 W093r
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借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， 6;Cr92
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 bL_s[-7
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 d|TRP,y
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 B)
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已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 X0b :Oiw
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 . hHt+
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 O/_} O_rR
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 ^T'+dGU`
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— [ /*$?PXt
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 C
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法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， O8SX#,3^}
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 SZg+5MD;X
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 (~-q}_G;Q
