Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself.
8}
S|iM
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index, a{)"KA P
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it. xwz2N 5
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios. nq$^}L 3&~
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility. 5$O@+W!?@
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows. zfxxPL'
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility. 2=U4'C4#
The resilience of such strategies could be tested. sa*hoL18
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade. z1YC%Y|R
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds `Y'}\>.#
and would also rattle America's huge private-credit markets. 8~4{e,} ,
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch. a Fl(K\
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper 7ZJYT#>b
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm. $osDw1C
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg. xOEj+
%M
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze. h],
_1!0
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets. /)v X|qtIY
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998— XV!P8 n
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds. GV%ibqOpQj
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets, 0] 5QX/I
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are. g.z/%Lp K
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news." )2:d8J\
首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。 ! 5 ]
/2
衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数 X4
xnr^
在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。 'S&5 zwrH
例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。 Z(CzU {7c
但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。 Q?Q!D+~mND
一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。 wl}Q|4
rZ
至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。 7eZ,;
x
这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。 Q L
更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。 3M/kfy
? ~kF^0-JZY
借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司， ql^n=+U
同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。 @7.Ews5Mke
上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。 V \4'Hd
到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差 kOeW,:&65
已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。 rr9N(AoxW
根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。 X8y&|uH
如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。 ,D;d#fJ
降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。 l g~Gkd 6
过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年—— }-! 0d*I
曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。 wNq#vn
法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes表示两周前， XeJn ,=
市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。 "! m6U#^
“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。 7S}NV7
